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The Sri Lankan stock market bounced back strongly in early 2024. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped by 15%. This surge shows growing investor trust in the country’s economic stability.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) saw busy trading days. Daily turnover ranged from Rs. 3.3 billion to Rs. 5.3 billion. Nine straight positive sessions highlighted the market’s strong performance.

The blue-chip S&P SL20 index also grew, rising 2.41% to 2,794.15 points. Better-than-expected company earnings fueled this growth. The nation’s economy looks promising, with GDP growth predicted to hit 2-3% by year-end.

Offboard deals on specific stocks made up 15% of total turnover. These deals involved companies like Watawala Plantations and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. This shows strong investor interest in these firms.

The bull market proves Sri Lanka’s economic resilience. It’s attracting both local and foreign investors. As the rally continues, it’s expected to boost overall economic growth.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market has shown impressive growth in 2024’s first half. The All-Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped 15%, while the S&P 20 rose 19%. Lower inflation rates and interest rates have boosted investor confidence.

Inflation Eases and Interest Rates Decline, Boosting Investor Confidence

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the stock market’s recovery. Investors now feel more optimistic about listed companies’ future. Quarterly interest costs for core companies have dropped significantly since 2020.

Foreign Inflows Contribute to Market Rally

Foreign portfolio investment has driven the market rally. As the economy improves, foreign investors have become net buyers. Completing external debt restructuring is vital for market sentiment.

Sticking to the IMF reform program is crucial for sustained growth. Any deviation may create uncertainty and discourage foreign investor participation.

Key Sectors Like Capital Goods and Diversified Financials Lead the Surge

Capital Goods and Diversified Financials sectors are leading the market recovery. These companies have reported strong earnings growth and improved profitability. The banking sector is expected to see a re-rating.

Core earnings will be driven by loan growth amid positive GDP expectations. Non-Banking Financial Institutions should benefit from the current declining interest rate cycle.

Sector	Allocation
Banks/NBFI	30%
Conglomerates	25%
Manufacturing	20%
Consumer	15%
Leisure	10%

Increased trading volume and investor participation have supported market growth. Small to mid-cap companies may outperform large caps due to falling fixed-income yields. CSE earnings are expected to grow by 15.0% in 2024.

The ASPI target is set at 13,800 levels by year-end. The Sri Lankan stock market is ready for further growth and recovery.

Factors Driving the Bull Market

Sri Lanka’s stock market bull run stems from improved economic outlook and investor sentiment. Successful debt restructuring talks led to an IMF agreement for a $2.90 billion Extended Fund Facility. This boosted investor confidence, showing the government’s commitment to economic reforms.

Government reforms and the IMF program have stabilized the macroeconomic environment. Inflation dropped to about 35% in April 2023 from over 70%. Market-based pricing for fuel and cooking gas has aided the economic turnaround.

Sri Lanka has made progress in overcoming its economic crisis. The tourism sector’s rebound has been a key factor in 2023’s economic growth.

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates Spark Multiple Expansion for Equities

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the Sri Lankan stock market bull run. Inflation is expected to hit single digits by Q3 2023. This has made investors more optimistic about the country’s economic future.

Lower interest rates have led to higher stock prices. Investors are willing to pay more due to improved earnings visibility. The Sri Lankan Rupee gained about 10% in February 2023 alone.

Successful Debt Restructuring Negotiations Improve Economic Outlook

Debt restructuring talks have been a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economy. Foreign debt was 55% of total debt in early 2022. The IMF agreement and fiscal plans have greatly improved the economic outlook.

This has boosted various sectors, like Financial Services and Leisure. Maldivian Resorts and Colombo Hotels have performed well. The Group’s Bunkering business has seen higher profits from fuel prices and volumes.

Government Reforms and IMF Extended Fund Facility Program Support Recovery

Government reforms and the IMF program provide a strong base for Sri Lanka’s recovery. These measures address macroeconomic imbalances and set the stage for future growth. The Group reported 17% EBITDA growth to Rs.45.74 billion despite challenges.

The Supermarket business showed resilience with 45% EBITDA growth to Rs.7.46 billion. Ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline are expected to brighten economic prospects. This provides a solid foundation for the continuing bull market in Sri Lankan stocks.

Sri Lanka faces its worst economic collapse since 1948. The country’s financial woes have led to sky-high inflation and depleted foreign reserves. Essential goods are scarce, and basic commodity prices have soared.

The crisis has sparked nationwide protests and resulted in Sri Lanka’s first sovereign debt default. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe admitted in parliament that the economy had collapsed.

Political turmoil and poor economic choices have worsened the situation. The Sri Lankan Rupee hit a record low of LKR 368.50 against the US dollar in November 2022.

This represents a 555% annual depreciation. By May 24, 2023, the currency had improved to LKR 305.00. However, economic recovery remains a distant goal.

The country’s heavy reliance on foreign debt and dwindling reserves have contributed to the crisis. Policy missteps have also played a role. These factors have left Sri Lankans bearing the brunt of economic hardship.

Background of Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis has been brewing for over a decade. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been rising since 2010. Foreign debt skyrocketed from $11.3 billion in 2005 to $56.3 billion in 2020.

The debt as a percentage of GDP jumped from 42% in 2019 to 119% in 2021. This massive debt, along with policy confusion and political turmoil, led to economic collapse.

The Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka warned about economic risks in 2014. However, the government ignored these economic warnings. Political chaos in 2018 made things worse.

A new government in 2019 scrapped the Central Bank Bill. This bill aimed to free the bank from political meddling and stop money printing.

Mounting Debt and Dwindling Reserves

Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves have fallen drastically. They dropped from $7.6 billion in late 2019 to $250 million in early 2022. The country owes $7 billion to China and $1 billion to India.

Sri Lanka faces a yearly deficit of $3 billion due to import-export imbalance. This has made it hard for the country to pay its debts.

Year	Foreign Debt (US$ billion)	Foreign Debt as % of GDP
2005	11.3	–
2019	–	42%
2020	56.3	–
2021	–	119%

In 2019, the government slashed taxes, losing $1.4 billion in yearly revenue. This put more strain on the country’s finances. Sri Lanka’s external debt kept growing, with $8.6 billion due in 2022.

These factors pushed Sri Lanka to the edge of bankruptcy. The country now faces a severe economic crisis.

Causes of Sri Lanka’s Economic Collapse

Sri Lanka’s economy crumbled in 2022 due to several factors. Large tax cuts, excessive money printing, and growing foreign debt were key issues. The Gotabaya Rajapaksa government’s tax cuts slashed revenue and worsened fiscal policies.

To cover spending, the Central Bank printed money at record levels. This ignored advice from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The excess cash led to higher purchasing power and import demand.

As a result, the balance of payments deficit grew. The gap was filled with costly loans from international commercial markets.

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Debt Burden

Sri Lanka’s foreign debt skyrocketed from $11.3 billion in 2005 to $56.3 billion in 2020. It rose from 42% of GDP in 2019 to 119% in 2021. By 2024, external debt reached $37,040 million, 43% of GDP.

The mounting debt and dwindling foreign reserves led to a crisis. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt obligations.

Year	Foreign Debt (USD Billion)	Foreign Debt as % of GDP
2005	11.3	–
2019	–	42%
2020	56.3	–
2021	–	119%
2024	37.04	43%

Credit Rating Downgrade

The economic crisis led to a downgrade in Sri Lanka’s credit rating. International agencies lowered it to default grade. This made it harder for the country to borrow more money.

The credit downgrade worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles. It limited access to global financial markets and increased borrowing costs.

These issues played a major role in Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic collapse. Addressing these problems and implementing reforms is crucial for recovery and future stability.

Sri Lanka Declares Bankruptcy Amidst Severe Economic Crisis in 2022

In 2022, Sri Lanka faced a dire financial situation. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe declared the country “bankrupt” during an unprecedented economic crisis. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to $2.31 billion by February.

Sri Lanka owed around $4 billion in debt repayments that year. This included a $1 billion international sovereign bond due in July. The country struggled to meet these obligations.

Foreign reserve depletion left Sri Lanka with less than a day’s worth of fuel. Schools suspended operations, and citizens faced severe fuel shortages. Food insecurity became widespread due to the economic collapse.

Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time since 1948. The country spent 9.2% of its GDP on foreign debt payments in 2022 alone.

Inability to Pay Foreign Debt Obligations

Sri Lanka’s total debt burden reached $51 billion. The nation owed about $29 billion from July 2021 to 2026. It couldn’t meet debt repayments, including a $78 million coupon payment on two bonds.

Prime Minister Acknowledges Economic Collapse

Wickremesinghe’s bankruptcy statement highlighted challenges in IMF negotiations. Sri Lanka entered talks as a bankrupt nation, not a developing one. This made economic recovery uncertain and difficult.

The crisis deeply affected Sri Lanka’s 21.8 million people. The UN reported that four out of five people now skip meals. Sri Lanka has South Asia’s second-highest child malnutrition rate, after Afghanistan.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s financial crisis stems from years of economic mismanagement, excessive debt, and global crises. The country’s GDP shrunk by 7.1% in 2022’s first three quarters. Inflation peaked at 70% in September 2022 but dropped to 54% by January 2023.

The government seeks IMF and international aid to tackle the crisis. Sri Lanka owes $51 billion externally, with 13 banks on rating watch negative. It’s among the world’s biggest loan defaulters, making the IMF bailout crucial.

The UN warns of a looming humanitarian crisis in Sri Lanka. About 500,000 more people now depend on aid. The country faces severe shortages of essentials like food, fuel, and medicine.

The financial crisis has pushed many into poverty. Predictions suggest a 10.9 percent poverty rate by 2021, equal to $3.20 per day.

Sri Lanka must prioritize its citizens’ well-being and address the crisis’s root causes. This includes reforms, improving transparency, and working with international partners. Only then can Sri Lanka build a more stable and prosperous future.

The historic decline of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US Dollar in 2022 marks a crisis. It fell 44.5% against the dollar by August 19, 2022. This drop came amid severe forex shortages and soaring inflation.

The US Dollar hit a high of Rs. 369 between March 7th and May 13th, 2022. This was a big jump from Rs. 304 on March 20th. By November 30th, the rupee had fallen to Rs. 329 against the dollar.

The rupee’s sharp drop of Rs 164.75 against the US Dollar has hurt the economy. It also fell against other major currencies during this time.

The rupee declined against the Indian rupee (40.5%), Euro (37.6%), and pound sterling (37.1%). It also dropped against the Japanese yen (34.3%). These drops made the economic crisis even worse.

Factors Contributing to the Sharp Depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee

The Sri Lankan Rupee plummeted against the US Dollar in 2022. Several factors led to this economic crisis. Forex market instability, rising import costs, and inflation put enormous pressure on the currency.

Economic Crisis and Forex Market Volatility

Sri Lanka’s economy faced numerous challenges before the 2022 crisis. The 2018 constitutional crisis and 2019 Easter Sunday attacks weakened the economy. COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 further destabilized it.

The Rupee lost 40% of its value against the dollar in just three months. This happened from February 2022 onwards. Real GDP shrank by 7.1% year-on-year in 2022’s first three quarters.

Surge in Import Costs and Inflation

Inflation, measured by the Colombo CPI (CCPI), hit 70% in September 2022. It slowed to 54% by January 2023. Rising import costs and currency devaluation heavily burdened businesses and consumers.

The exchange rate settled at about 360 Rupee/Dollar in May 2022. This was under the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s FX market guidance.

Year	Total Revenue	Tax Revenue	Total Expenditure and Net Lending	Overall Balance	Primary Balance
2022	2,012	1,751	4,473	-2,460	-895

US Dollar Strength and Currency Shortage

The strong US Dollar and low foreign currency reserves worsened the Rupee’s decline. Gross international reserves (GIR) were about $1.9 billion in December 2022.

The government’s decision to use up reserves before seeking IMF help fueled the economic crisis. This choice left the country with almost no reserves in early 2022.

Impact of the Rupee Depreciation on the Sri Lankan Economy

The Sri Lankan rupee’s sharp fall has shaken the country’s economy. It’s affected living costs, inflation, imports, and debt repayment. On June 20, the rupee hit Rs. 170.56 against the US dollar. This drop has worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles.

Rise in Cost of Living and Inflation

The weak rupee has made life costlier for Sri Lankans. In September 2022, inflation hit a record 69.8%. Food prices soared even higher, reaching 94.9%.

The National Consumer Price Index rose 58.9% in June 2022. Meanwhile, the Colombo Consumer Price Index jumped 60.8% in July 2022.

Challenges for Importers and Businesses

Sri Lankan importers and businesses face tough times. The weak rupee has made imports pricier. This hurts companies that rely on foreign goods and materials.

Consumers now pay more, while businesses earn less. Fuel price hikes have also increased the country’s oil import costs.

Strain on Foreign Debt Repayment

By March 2022, Sri Lanka’s government debt hit Rs. 21,696.6 billion. This was up from Rs. 17,589.4 billion in late 2021.

The falling rupee makes foreign debt repayment harder. The debt’s value in rupees has grown. This strains the country’s finances further. Sri Lanka’s external debt reached USD 37.5 billion in June 2024.

Sri Lankan Rupee Depreciates Sharply Against US Dollar in 2022

The Sri Lankan Rupee faced major challenges in 2022. It sharply depreciated against the US Dollar and other currencies. The Central Bank reported a 44.5% drop against the US Dollar by August 19, 2022.

This decline stemmed from the country’s economic crisis and forex market instability. The US Dollar’s overall strength also played a role.

Rupee Depreciation by 44.5% Against US Dollar in 2022

The Rupee hit an all-time low of 372.00 against the US Dollar in May 2022. This sharp fall had wide-reaching effects on Sri Lanka’s economy. It led to higher import costs, inflation, and strain on foreign debt repayment.

Businesses and individuals felt the impact too. Many Sri Lankans worried about the rising cost of living.

Cross Currency Exchange Rate Movements

The Rupee’s decline wasn’t limited to the US Dollar. It also fell against other major currencies during this time. The Central Bank reported drops against the Indian Rupee, Euro, Pound Sterling, and Japanese Yen.

These cross currency exchange rate movements further highlighted Sri Lanka’s economic struggles in 2022.

Currency	Depreciation (%)
US Dollar	44.5%
Indian Rupee	40.5%
Euro	37.6%
Pound Sterling	37.1%
Japanese Yen	34.3%

Conclusion

The Sri Lankan Rupee’s fall against the US Dollar in 2022 fueled the country’s economic crisis. Forex shortages, inflation, and currency movements caused this decline. This led to higher living costs and business challenges.

The crisis caused a 7.8% GDP drop in 2023. Hyperinflation hit 73% in September 2022. The government asked the IMF and World Bank for help to stabilize the economy.

Some positive signs emerged. Reserves grew to US$ 2.6 Billion in July 2023. The IMF approved a US$ 3 Billion bailout program. However, recovery will be slow and difficult.

Sri Lanka must focus on helping its most vulnerable citizens. It also needs to boost competitiveness and attract foreign investment. A well-planned approach is key to overcoming this crisis.

Sri Lanka has unveiled a domestic debt restructuring plan to tackle its economic crisis. The strategy aims to meet IMF bailout conditions and restore stability. The goal is to reduce overall debt to 95% of GDP by 2032.

Sri Lanka is implementing major economic reforms as part of the IMF program. The plan includes a 30% haircut for local dollar-denominated bonds. These bonds will have a six-year maturity at 4% interest.

Bilateral dollar creditors have a different option. They can choose no principal haircut with a 15-year maturity. This option includes a nine-year grace period at 1.5% interest.

The restructuring also covers local currency bonds held by superannuation funds. These will be swapped for longer maturity bonds with 9% interest. CBSL-held Treasury bills will become bonds maturing between 2029-2038.

Sri Lanka’s economy faces severe challenges. The country’s GDP shrank by 7.8% in 2022 and 11.5% in Q1 2023. Real wages fell by 30-50% in 2022. Nearly 43% of children under five suffer from malnutrition.

The government aims to finalize debt restructuring talks by September. This aligns with the first review of its IMF program. The goal is to address pressing issues and pave the way for economic recovery.

Overview of Sri Lanka’s Domestic Debt Restructuring Plan

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank has unveiled a new debt restructuring strategy. This plan aims to restore economic stability and meet IMF bailout conditions. It’s a vital step towards debt sustainability and improved fiscal policy.

The plan covers part of Sri Lanka’s $42bn domestic debt. It’s crucial for reaching the IMF’s target of reducing overall debt to 95% of GDP by 2032. Local currency bonds will be exchanged for longer-term bonds with 9% interest.

Impact on Retirement Funds

Sri Lanka’s retirement funds, worth Rs 4,354 billion, are greatly affected by this plan. The real value of these funds dropped by over 40% in 2022. This was due to currency depreciation and price increases.

Retirement Fund	Total Asset Value (Rs billion)	Accounts (millions)
Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF)	3,919	19.2
Other Retirement Funds	435	–
Total	4,354	–

The debt restructuring could cause retirement funds to lose 29% of their value over 10 years. By 2038, they might lose 47% of their value. These funds’ value is expected to drop from 17.7% to 9.4% of GDP.

Importance for External Debt Renegotiations

The success of this plan is vital for Sri Lanka’s $36bn external debt talks. This includes $24bn held by bondholders and creditors like China, Japan, and India. By showing commitment to reforms, Sri Lanka can improve its chances for favorable external debt terms.

Government Launches Domestic Debt Restructuring Plan

Sri Lanka’s government has unveiled a domestic debt restructuring plan to address the country’s economic crisis. The plan targets $42.1 billion of Sri Lanka’s $83 billion total debt. It’s supported by 122 lawmakers in the 225-member parliament.

This plan is part of the conditions for the IMF bailout package. It aims to tackle the domestic portion of Sri Lanka’s debt.

Options for Holders of Locally Issued Dollar-Denominated Bonds

The restructuring plan offers three options for holders of locally issued dollar-denominated bonds. These bonds include Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs).

Option	Principal Haircut	Maturity	Interest Rate
1	30%	6 years	4%
2	–	15 years (9-year grace period)	1.5%
3	Exchange for local currency bonds	10 years	SLFR + 1%

Treatment of Local Currency Bonds Held by Superannuation Funds

Superannuation funds’ local currency bonds will be exchanged for longer maturity bonds. These new bonds will mature between 2027 and 2038 with a 9 percent interest rate.

Funds refusing to participate may face a 30 percent tax penalty. This applies to pension funds and other superannuation funds.

Exclusion of Treasury Bills and Bonds Held by Banking Sector

Central Bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe proposed converting treasury bills into longer-maturity treasury bonds. However, the banking sector’s treasury bills and bonds are excluded from restructuring.

This exclusion considers the significant stress currently faced by the banking sector.

Importance of Domestic Debt Rework for Foreign Debt Renegotiations

The domestic debt restructuring is expected to boost foreign debt renegotiations. Sri Lanka aims to reduce its $36bn foreign debt by $17 billion through restructuring.

The government is engaging with foreign creditors like the Paris Club, India, and China. They plan to finalize debt restructuring talks by September.

This timeline aligns with the first review of Sri Lanka’s IMF programme. The IMF recently approved a nearly $3 billion bailout package for the country.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s domestic debt restructuring plan is a key step towards economic recovery. The Central Bank will present the framework to Parliament for approval. They aim to finalize the bond exchange of superannuated funds by July’s end.

The government declared a five-day holiday from June 29 to July 3. This move will help manage market volatility and allow for loss recognition from bond sales. The plan’s success is crucial for creditor negotiations and regaining financial stability.

The debt agreements will reduce the government’s annual fiscal requirement by over 13%. This reduction will occur between 2027-2032, keeping debt payments below 4.5% of GDP. The government plans to clear bilateral loan installments by 2028 and settle concessional loans by 2043.

The President has outlined a four-step plan to boost the economy. It focuses on securing credit, implementing fiscal discipline, and attracting foreign investment. The goal is to transform Sri Lanka into a developed economy by 2048.

The restructuring plan’s execution within two years shows remarkable progress. Moving from near-bankruptcy to positive outcomes is impressive by global standards. This plan will play a vital role in creating a stable, prosperous future for Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka’s government has revealed its fiscal strategy for 2021-2025. The plan aims to tackle the growing deficit and stabilize public finance. The Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework sets key goals for the country.

The strategy focuses on tax increases and reforms to boost government revenue. It aims to raise the revenue-to-GDP ratio to over 14% by 2025. This will be done through tax policy changes and improved revenue administration.

The government targets 6% economic growth and low unemployment. It also wants to keep inflation under 5%. Public investment will focus on vital infrastructure projects like roads and water supply.

Despite COVID-19 challenges, the government is committed to its fiscal strategy. The plan seeks to address the deficit and promote sustainable growth for Sri Lanka.

Government’s Fiscal Strategy for 2021-2025

Sri Lanka’s government has outlined its fiscal strategy for 2021-2025 in the Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework (MTMFF). Key objectives include achieving a primary surplus by 2025 and reducing the budget deficit. The plan aims to cut unproductive spending and create a sustainable budget.

Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework Objectives

The MTMFF focuses on reforming state-owned enterprises to boost efficiency. Qualified professionals will be appointed to management boards to improve productivity. These changes aim to reduce the burden on the government’s budget.

Public Investment Focus and Financing

Public investment will prioritize road projects and increase access to pipe-borne water. These investments will boost productivity in agriculture and industries. They’ll also improve citizens’ quality of life.

Domestic financing will cover 75% of public investment. This approach complements private sector investments and stimulates economic activity.

Rationalizing Recurrent Expenditure

The government plans to reduce recurrent expenditure from 14.2% of GDP in 2021 to 12.3% by 2025. This strategy includes freezing spending on vehicles, buildings, and other assets.

Digitalizing key systems like e-procurement and e-National Identity Card will boost efficiency. These measures will help streamline government operations and cut costs.

Government Implements Tax Hikes to Boost Revenue Amid Fiscal Deficit

Sri Lanka’s government has launched a plan to tackle the fiscal deficit. They’re using tax policy reforms and revenue administration to increase income. These changes aim to improve tax collection and support fiscal consolidation efforts.

Comprehensive Strategy Linking Tax Policy and Revenue Administration Reforms

The government has made several tax policy changes. These include raising the PAL rate and removing the NBT rate. They’ve also simplified the tax system to make it more efficient.

These reforms are paired with improvements in revenue administration. The goal is to make tax collection more effective. These measures are expected to boost revenue and support fiscal consolidation.

Simplification of the Taxation System

The government has made the tax system simpler and more user-friendly. They’ve cut down the number of taxes people need to pay. This includes removing taxes like NBT, PAYE, and WHT.

These changes should make it easier for people to pay their taxes. The government hopes this will lead to better compliance and more revenue.

Capacity Enhancing Measures in Revenue Administration

New measures have been put in place to improve tax collection. The Inland Revenue Department now has a Large Taxpayers Unit. They’ve also introduced risk-based audits and improved their information system.

Sri Lanka Customs has launched a Single Window System. They’re also working on a National Single Window platform. These changes aim to make trade easier and improve revenue collection.

Despite the economic crisis, the government is investing in education. They’ve set aside Rs. 465 billion for education in 2024. This shows their commitment to creating a better education system for all students.

These reforms and investments are part of a larger plan. The government hopes to improve the economy and promote long-term growth.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s government aims to tackle its fiscal deficit and boost economic stability. They’re focusing on tax reforms and better revenue collection to increase income. Simplifying taxes and improving administration should help achieve this goal. The strong performance of the Colombo Stock shows investor faith in the economy.

Expenditure management is crucial for fiscal consolidation. The government plans to cut recurring costs while investing in key sectors. This approach should optimize resources and support growth.

COVID-19 has created significant challenges for Sri Lanka’s fiscal targets. The pandemic caused job losses and economic shrinkage. Sri Lanka’s economy shrank by 7.8 percent in 2022 and 7.9 percent in early 2023.

Despite setbacks, the government remains committed to reforms. The IMF’s approval of a US$3 billion Extended Fund Facility demonstrates this commitment. Success depends on implementing reforms and managing debt restructuring effectively.

The government must stay alert and flexible to achieve its fiscal goals. By doing so, they can work towards sustainable economic growth in the coming years.